Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 3.719593 4.381190 5.114677 5.986519 6.992854 8.116203 9.463382
2025-08-17 2.472185 3.288263 4.295198 5.621666 7.314904 9.395007 12.133903
2025-08-24 1.814924 2.677511 3.842328 5.513402 7.829046 10.901002 15.256161
2025-08-31 1.399288 2.259559 3.515449 5.453052 8.329818 12.397284 18.523941
2025-09-07 1.176664 2.055087 3.426482 5.677274 9.218549 14.497939 22.856758
2025-09-14 0.971830 1.825731 3.243992 5.706945 9.790501 16.173902 26.738265
2025-09-21 0.812985 1.634684 3.079893 5.722923 10.318472 17.815263 30.722759
2025-09-28 0.687185 1.473221 2.931926 5.731004 10.815764 19.440278 34.832179
2025-10-05 0.650459 1.472216 3.067596 6.254201 12.256675 22.769329 42.089774
2025-10-12 0.581692 1.391488 3.037268 6.460023 13.145413 25.233090 48.102422
2025-10-19 0.523444 1.320288 3.011842 6.666695 14.052655 27.809990 54.549444
2025-10-26 0.454404 1.209946 2.886423 6.651015 14.522984 29.626730 59.779127
2025-11-02 0.376505 1.063774 2.664000 6.410114 14.535711 30.626859 63.675702
2025-11-09 0.306308 0.920002 2.421155 6.087227 14.338697 31.205605 66.843590
2025-11-16 0.261574 0.831488 2.290359 5.993791 14.614106 32.747040 72.048747
2025-11-23 0.225765 0.758391 2.183071 5.936739 14.958711 34.459776 77.757236
2025-11-30 0.208830 0.735857 2.199924 6.182101 16.018016 37.773675 87.068161
2025-12-07 0.185122 0.686514 2.136509 6.215248 16.582633 40.072787 94.435969
2025-12-14 0.163999 0.639775 2.071301 6.232905 17.110490 42.339014 101.931701
2025-12-21 0.145357 0.596227 2.006782 6.241780 17.616343 44.601589 109.615639
2025-12-28 0.145193 0.617569 2.137499 6.807498 19.596007 50.427640 125.755283
2026-01-04 0.135002 0.599779 2.146239 7.029963 20.714214 54.337168 137.847816
2026-01-11 0.125696 0.582871 2.154767 7.253291 21.860867 58.416301 150.661545